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Models

The models used to generate a simulation-based projection rely on certain modeling assumptions. The county-level four-week projection of expected COVID-19 cases relies on the CDC County-Level Ensemble Model.

Modeling assumptions​

The state-of-the-art forecasting models rely on certain assumptions to effectively generate a simulation-based projection. Assumptions are as follows:

  • The distribution for admissions and occupancy as a percent of active COVID-19 cases is stable within periods of eight weeks or less
  • ICU and non-ICU COVID-19 admissions and occupancy is following a Weibull distribution
  • Active COVID-19 cases used for calculations are the sum of daily new COVID-19 cases from the last eight weeks
    Note

    This assumption has the effect of smoothing the variation seen in daily reported cases over weekends and other irregular periods.

CDC county-level ensemble model​

The county-level four-week projection of expected COVID-19 cases used to generate the hospital-level four-week projection makes use of the county-level ensemble model from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC model incorporates diverse modeling algorithms (time-series, SEIRD, etc.) and government and non-government organizations use it.

The county-level four-week projection of expected COVID-19 cases is rendered on the following chart when the simulation-based projection is generated:

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Last updated on by Oshini Nugapitiya